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Shukura vs Gagra — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Shukura
Shukura
FT
3 – 4
HT: 3 – 1
Gagra
Gagra
6/1/2023Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 18Batumis Dinamos Satsvrtneli Baza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Shukura31%
×Draw25%
Gagra45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shukura
1.27
Gagra
1.59

Gagra creates 25% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 84 away

creates per match

Shukura
0.95
Gagra
1.02

allows per match

Shukura
2.16
Gagra
1.60

finishing

Shukura+0.00on par
Gagra+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shukura ↓

Gagra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shukura or draw
55%
Shukura or Gagra
75%
Draw or Gagra
69%

Winning margin

Shukura wins by 2+
13%
Gagra wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Shukura 1+ goals
72%
Shukura 2+ goals
36%
Shukura 3+ goals
14%
Gagra 1+ goals
80%
Gagra 2+ goals
47%
Gagra 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Shukura (draw refunded)
41%
Gagra (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shukura at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.16 · 38 matches

Gagra away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.60 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shukura attack 0.95 + Gagra defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.27

Gagra attack 1.02 + Shukura defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shukura scores more
31%
level
25%
Gagra scores more
45%

Gagra at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gagra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shukura 3 – 4 Gagra

Gagra beat Shukura 4-3 in Erovnuli Liga on June 1, 2023.

The match was played at Batumis Dinamos Satsvrtneli Baza in Batumi.