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Shukura vs Dinamo Zugdidi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Shukura
Shukura
CANC
11:00
Dinamo Zugdidi
Dinamo Zugdidi
11/5/2022Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Shukura59%
×Draw22%
Dinamo Zugdidi19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shukura
1.89
Dinamo Zugdidi
0.98

Shukura creates 93% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 25 away

creates per match

Shukura
1.57
Dinamo Zugdidi
1.16

allows per match

Shukura
0.80
Dinamo Zugdidi
2.20

finishing

Shukura+0.00on par
Dinamo Zugdidi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shukura ↓

Dinamo Zugdidi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shukura or draw
81%
Shukura or Dinamo Zugdidi
78%
Draw or Dinamo Zugdidi
41%

Winning margin

Shukura wins by 2+
34%
Dinamo Zugdidi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shukura 1+ goals
85%
Shukura 2+ goals
56%
Shukura 3+ goals
29%
Dinamo Zugdidi 1+ goals
62%
Dinamo Zugdidi 2+ goals
26%
Dinamo Zugdidi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shukura (draw refunded)
75%
Dinamo Zugdidi (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shukura at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.80 · 35 matches

Dinamo Zugdidi away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shukura attack 1.57 + Dinamo Zugdidi defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.89

Dinamo Zugdidi attack 1.16 + Shukura defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Shukura scores more
59%
level
22%
Dinamo Zugdidi scores more
19%

Shukura at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Shukura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shukura vs Dinamo Zugdidi — Match Preview

Shukura face Dinamo Zugdidi on November 5, 2022 in this Erovnuli Liga 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.