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Shukura vs Dinamo Batumi — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Shukura
Shukura
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 5
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi
10/2/2023Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 28Batumis Dinamos Satsvrtneli Baza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Shukura21%
×Draw23%
Dinamo Batumi56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shukura
1.02
Dinamo Batumi
1.84

Dinamo Batumi creates 80% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 128 away

creates per match

Shukura
0.95
Dinamo Batumi
1.52

allows per match

Shukura
2.16
Dinamo Batumi
1.10

finishing

Shukura+0.00on par
Dinamo Batumi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shukura ↓

Dinamo Batumi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shukura or draw
44%
Shukura or Dinamo Batumi
77%
Draw or Dinamo Batumi
79%

Winning margin

Shukura wins by 2+
7%
Dinamo Batumi wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Shukura 1+ goals
64%
Shukura 2+ goals
27%
Shukura 3+ goals
8%
Dinamo Batumi 1+ goals
84%
Dinamo Batumi 2+ goals
55%
Dinamo Batumi 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Shukura (draw refunded)
27%
Dinamo Batumi (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shukura at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.16 · 38 matches

Dinamo Batumi away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.10 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shukura attack 0.95 + Dinamo Batumi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Dinamo Batumi attack 1.52 + Shukura defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shukura scores more
21%
level
23%
Dinamo Batumi scores more
56%

Dinamo Batumi at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dinamo Batumi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Shukura 0–6 Dinamo Batumi

Dinamo Batumi beat Shukura 6-0 in Erovnuli Liga on October 2, 2023.

The match was played at Batumis Dinamos Satsvrtneli Baza in Batumi.