Shukura 1–8 Dinamo Batumi: Result & Stats

Shukura

FT

1 – 8

HT: 1 – 4

Dinamo Batumi

L. Ingorokva 14'

G. Zaria 89'

J. Jighauri 76', 55'

G. Pantsulaia 69', 42'

L. Grozurek 28', 23'

V. Mamuchashvili 20'

4/29/2021

Erovnuli Liga · Round 6Stadioni Davit Abashidze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Shukura24%

×Draw23%

Dinamo Batumi53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShukuraExpected goals in this matchDinamo Batumi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.77

Shukura

1.11

Dinamo Batumi

1.77

Dinamo Batumi creates 59% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 120 away

1.11

creates per match

1.51

2.02

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Shukura

1.11

Dinamo Batumi

1.51

allows per match

Shukura

2.02

Dinamo Batumi

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shukura+0.00on par

Dinamo Batumi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shukura ↓

Dinamo Batumi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Shukura or draw

47%

Shukura or Dinamo Batumi

77%

Draw or Dinamo Batumi

76%

Winning margin

Shukura wins by 2+

9%

Dinamo Batumi wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Shukura 1+ goals

67%

Shukura 2+ goals

30%

Shukura 3+ goals

10%

Dinamo Batumi 1+ goals

83%

Dinamo Batumi 2+ goals

53%

Dinamo Batumi 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Shukura (draw refunded)

31%

Dinamo Batumi (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shukura at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.02 · 45 matches

Dinamo Batumi away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.11 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shukura attack 1.11 + Dinamo Batumi defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Dinamo Batumi attack 1.51 + Shukura defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Shukura scores more

24%

level

23%

Dinamo Batumi scores more

53%

Dinamo Batumi at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dinamo Batumi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

20'

23'

25'

25'

28'

28'

37'

G. Kalandia← N. Tchanturia

42'

G. Pantsulaia

46'

G. Manjgaladze← G. Chabradze

55'

J. Jighauri

59'

G. Apkhazava← Z. Museliani

59'

C. Tanor← G. Gureshidze

61'

G. Zaria← L. Grozurek

61'

I. Azarovi← S. Altunashvili

65'

S. Ekvtimishvili

67'

G. Chelebadze← L. Ingorokva

67'

B. Verulidze← Jefinho

69'

G. Pantsulaia

70'

L. Shindagoridze← V. Mamuchashvili

72'

V. Sanogo← G. Pantsulaia

76'

J. Jighauri

89'

G. Zaria

Shukura

Dinamo

13

22

23

5

35

▼

Chabradze

21

⚽2

▼

Grozurek

8

⚽2

Jighauri

3

Teidi

17

⚽

▼

Mamuchash

19

▼

Altunashv

14

⚽2

▼

13

23

2

5

▼

Tchanturi

8

Khmaladze

33

▼

Jefinho

16

▼

Gureshidz

40

Ekvtimish

14

⚽

▼

Ingorokva

11

Juninho

7

▼

Museliani

Manager: G. Shashiashvili

37'▲G. Kalandia←▼N. Tchanturia

59'▲G. Apkhazava←▼Z. Museliani

59'▲C. Tanor←▼G. Gureshidze

67'▲G. Chelebadze←▼L. Ingorokva

67'▲B. Verulidze←▼Jefinho

Shukura substitutes

4Kalandia19Apkhazava20Tanor10Chelebadze17Verulidze6Gogitidze9Mujiri18Rokhvadze12Motskobili

Manager: G. Geguchadze

46'▲G. Manjgaladze←▼G. Chabradze

61'▲G. Zaria←▼L. Grozurek

61'▲I. Azarovi←▼S. Altunashvili

70'▲L. Shindagoridze←▼V. Mamuchashvili

72'▲V. Sanogo←▼G. Pantsulaia

Dinamo Batumi substitutes

11Manjgaladze7Zaria16Azarovi30Shindagoridze27Sanogo1Alavidze4Margvelashvili6Gaprindashvili18Gegetchkori

Erovnuli Liga: Shukura 1–8 Dinamo Batumi

Dinamo Batumi beat Shukura 8-1 in Erovnuli Liga on April 29, 2021.

Goals: L. Ingorokva (14'), V. Mamuchashvili (20'), L. Grozurek (23', 28'), G. Pantsulaia (42', 69'), J. Jighauri (55', 76'), G. Zaria (89').

The match was played at Stadioni Davit Abashidze in Zestaponi.

Shukura vs Dinamo Batumi — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Erovnuli Liga: Shukura 1–8 Dinamo Batumi