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Shukura vs Aragvi Dusheti — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Shukura
Shukura
CANC
11:00
Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti
10/26/2020Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Shukura55%
×Draw26%
Aragvi Dusheti19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shukura
1.52
Aragvi Dusheti
0.76

Shukura creates 100% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 36 away

creates per match

Shukura
1.61
Aragvi Dusheti
0.75

allows per match

Shukura
0.76
Aragvi Dusheti
1.44

finishing

Shukura+0.00on par
Aragvi Dusheti+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shukura ↓

Aragvi Dusheti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shukura or draw
81%
Shukura or Aragvi Dusheti
74%
Draw or Aragvi Dusheti
45%

Winning margin

Shukura wins by 2+
29%
Aragvi Dusheti wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shukura 1+ goals
78%
Shukura 2+ goals
45%
Shukura 3+ goals
20%
Aragvi Dusheti 1+ goals
53%
Aragvi Dusheti 2+ goals
18%
Aragvi Dusheti 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shukura (draw refunded)
75%
Aragvi Dusheti (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shukura at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.76 · 33 matches

Aragvi Dusheti away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.44 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shukura attack 1.61 + Aragvi Dusheti defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Aragvi Dusheti attack 0.75 + Shukura defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Shukura scores more
55%
level
26%
Aragvi Dusheti scores more
19%

Shukura at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Shukura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shukura vs Aragvi Dusheti — Match Preview

Shukura face Aragvi Dusheti on October 26, 2020 in this Erovnuli Liga 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.