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Shukura II vs Varketili — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Shukura II
Shukura II
AET
2 – 6
HT: 0 – 0
Varketili
Varketili
L. Nemsadze 15'
N. Ghlonti 8'
L. Managadze 115', 104'
K. Tsikalanovi 107'
Z. Basilashvili 105+3', 1'
S. Meskhi 25' (OG)
7/6/2022David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · 3rd RoundStadioni Pazisi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shukura II21%
×Draw23%
Varketili56%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shukura II
1.02
Varketili
1.80

Varketili creates 76% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Shukura II
1.25
Varketili
2.60

allows per match

Shukura II
1.00
Varketili
0.80

finishing

Shukura II+0.00on par
Varketili+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shukura II ↓

Varketili →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Shukura II or draw
44%
Shukura II or Varketili
77%
Draw or Varketili
79%

Winning margin

Shukura II wins by 2+
8%
Varketili wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Shukura II 1+ goals
64%
Shukura II 2+ goals
27%
Shukura II 3+ goals
8%
Varketili 1+ goals
83%
Varketili 2+ goals
54%
Varketili 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Shukura II (draw refunded)
28%
Varketili (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shukura II at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Varketili away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shukura II attack 1.25 + Varketili defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Varketili attack 2.60 + Shukura II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shukura II scores more
21%
level
23%
Varketili scores more
56%

Varketili at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Varketili will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
Z. Basilashvili
8'
N. Ghlonti
15'
L. Nemsadze
25'
S. MeskhiOwn goal
104'
L. Managadze
105+3'
Z. Basilashvili
107'
K. Tsikalanovi
115'
L. Managadze

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

David Kipiani Cup: Shukura II 2–6 Varketili

Varketili beat Shukura II 6-2 in David Kipiani Cup on July 6, 2022.

Goals: Z. Basilashvili (1', 105+3'), N. Ghlonti (8'), L. Nemsadze (15'), S. Meskhi (25' o.g.), L. Managadze (104', 115'), K. Tsikalanovi (107').

The match was played at Stadioni Pazisi in Poti.