Shukura II 2–1 Tbilisi City: Result & Stats

Shukura II

AET

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tbilisi City

G. Dzirkvadze 102'

T. Khabazi 76'

G. Revazashvili 54'

5/27/2023

David Kipiani Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Shukura II23%

×Draw23%

Tbilisi City54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shukura IIExpected goals in this matchTbilisi City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.83

Shukura II

1.13

Tbilisi City

1.83

Tbilisi City creates 62% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.25

creates per match

2.67

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Shukura II

1.25

Tbilisi City

2.67

allows per match

Shukura II

1.00

Tbilisi City

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shukura II+0.00on par

Tbilisi City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shukura II ↓

Tbilisi City →

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Shukura II or draw

46%

Shukura II or Tbilisi City

77%

Draw or Tbilisi City

77%

Winning margin

Shukura II wins by 2+

Tbilisi City wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Shukura II 1+ goals

68%

Shukura II 2+ goals

31%

Shukura II 3+ goals

11%

Tbilisi City 1+ goals

84%

Tbilisi City 2+ goals

54%

Tbilisi City 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Shukura II (draw refunded)

30%

Tbilisi City (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Shukura II at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Tbilisi City away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Shukura II attack 1.25 + Tbilisi City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Tbilisi City attack 2.67 + Shukura II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Shukura II scores more

23%

level

23%

Tbilisi City scores more

54%

Tbilisi City at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tbilisi City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

G. Revazashvili

76'

T. Khabazi

102'

G. Dzirkvadze

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff