Shukura II 0–1 Shturmi: Result & Stats

Shukura II

0 – 1

Shturmi

3/23/2021

David Kipiani Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shukura II15%

×Draw19%

Shturmi66%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shukura IIExpected goals in this matchShturmi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

2.20

Shukura II

0.93

Shturmi

2.20

Shturmi creates 137% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.25

creates per match

3.40

1.00

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Shukura II

1.25

Shturmi

3.40

allows per match

Shukura II

1.00

Shturmi

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shukura II+0.00on par

Shturmi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shukura II ↓

Shturmi →

0–04%

0–110%

0–211%

0–38%

0–44%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Shukura II or draw

34%

Shukura II or Shturmi

81%

Draw or Shturmi

85%

Winning margin

Shukura II wins by 2+

Shturmi wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Shukura II 1+ goals

61%

Shukura II 2+ goals

24%

Shukura II 3+ goals

Shturmi 1+ goals

89%

Shturmi 2+ goals

64%

Shturmi 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Shukura II (draw refunded)

18%

Shturmi (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Shukura II at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Shturmi away — creates 3.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Shukura II attack 1.25 + Shturmi defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.93

Shturmi attack 3.40 + Shukura II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Shukura II scores more

15%

level

19%

Shturmi scores more

66%

Shturmi at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Shturmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff