Shukura II 1–2 Meshakhte: Result & Stats

Shukura II

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Meshakhte

I. Giritiladze 48'

J. Salifu 67', 55'

7/23/2023

David Kipiani Cup · Round of 32Chele Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shukura II30%

×Draw28%

Meshakhte42%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shukura IIExpected goals in this matchMeshakhte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.25

Shukura II

1.00

Meshakhte

1.25

Meshakhte creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.25

creates per match

1.50

1.00

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Shukura II

1.25

Meshakhte

1.50

allows per match

Shukura II

1.00

Meshakhte

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shukura II+0.00on par

Meshakhte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shukura II ↓

Meshakhte →

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Shukura II or draw

58%

Shukura II or Meshakhte

72%

Draw or Meshakhte

70%

Winning margin

Shukura II wins by 2+

11%

Meshakhte wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Shukura II 1+ goals

63%

Shukura II 2+ goals

26%

Shukura II 3+ goals

Meshakhte 1+ goals

71%

Meshakhte 2+ goals

36%

Meshakhte 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Shukura II (draw refunded)

41%

Meshakhte (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Shukura II at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Meshakhte away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Shukura II attack 1.25 + Meshakhte defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Meshakhte attack 1.50 + Shukura II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shukura II scores more

30%

level

28%

Meshakhte scores more

42%

Meshakhte at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Meshakhte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

I. Giritiladze

55'

J. Salifu

58'

D. Ebralidze← Z. Gugeshashvili

67'

J. Salifu

72'

N. Tchaghalidze← G. Paitchadze

81'

L. Dolidze← G. Kurmashvili

81'

L. Khidesheli← J. Salifu

90+3'

K. Mamadou Seko← N. Abuladze

Shukura

Meshakhte

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: M. Sheveliovi

72'▲N. Tchaghalidze←▼G. Paitchadze

Shukura II substitutes

TchaghalidzeGogitidzeKatamadzeJintcharadzeBezhanidzeBeridze

Manager: L. Burduli

58'▲D. Ebralidze←▼Z. Gugeshashvili

81'▲L. Dolidze←▼G. Kurmashvili

81'▲L. Khidesheli←▼J. Salifu

90+3'▲K. Mamadou Seko←▼N. Abuladze

Meshakhte substitutes

EbralidzeDolidzeKhidesheliSekoMotskobiliSomkhishviliAleksidze