Shukura II 3–1 Merani Tbilisi II: Result & Stats

Shukura II

3 – 1

Merani Tbilisi II

5/26/2022

David Kipiani Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Shukura II78%

×Draw13%

Merani Tbilisi II9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shukura IIExpected goals in this matchMerani Tbilisi II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.13

1.00

Shukura II

3.13

Merani Tbilisi II

1.00

Shukura II creates 213% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.25

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

5.00

creates per match

Shukura II

1.25

Merani Tbilisi II

1.00

allows per match

Shukura II

1.00

Merani Tbilisi II

5.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shukura II+0.00on par

Merani Tbilisi II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shukura II ↓

Merani Tbilisi II →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–05%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Shukura II or draw

91%

Shukura II or Merani Tbilisi II

87%

Draw or Merani Tbilisi II

22%

Winning margin

Shukura II wins by 2+

59%

Merani Tbilisi II wins by 2+

Team goals

Shukura II 1+ goals

95%

Shukura II 2+ goals

81%

Shukura II 3+ goals

59%

Merani Tbilisi II 1+ goals

63%

Merani Tbilisi II 2+ goals

26%

Merani Tbilisi II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Shukura II (draw refunded)

90%

Merani Tbilisi II (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Shukura II at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Merani Tbilisi II away — creates 1.00, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Shukura II attack 1.25 + Merani Tbilisi II defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.13

Merani Tbilisi II attack 1.00 + Shukura II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 78%?"

Shukura II scores more

78%

level

13%

Merani Tbilisi II scores more

Shukura II at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Shukura II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff