Shturmi 5–0 Kolkheti Khobi: Result & Stats

Shturmi

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kolkheti Khobi

3/17/2024

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 3Sartitchalis Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Shturmi60%

×Draw22%

Kolkheti Khobi18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShturmiExpected goals in this matchKolkheti Khobi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.90

Shturmi

1.86

Kolkheti Khobi

0.90

Shturmi creates 107% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 36 away

1.25

creates per match

0.94

0.86

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Shturmi

1.25

Kolkheti Khobi

0.94

allows per match

Shturmi

0.86

Kolkheti Khobi

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shturmi+0.00on par

Kolkheti Khobi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shturmi ↓

Kolkheti Khobi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Shturmi or draw

82%

Shturmi or Kolkheti Khobi

78%

Draw or Kolkheti Khobi

40%

Winning margin

Shturmi wins by 2+

35%

Kolkheti Khobi wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shturmi 1+ goals

84%

Shturmi 2+ goals

55%

Shturmi 3+ goals

28%

Kolkheti Khobi 1+ goals

59%

Kolkheti Khobi 2+ goals

23%

Kolkheti Khobi 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Shturmi (draw refunded)

77%

Kolkheti Khobi (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shturmi at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.86 · 28 matches

Kolkheti Khobi away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.47 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shturmi attack 1.25 + Kolkheti Khobi defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.86

Kolkheti Khobi attack 0.94 + Shturmi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Shturmi scores more

60%

level

22%

Kolkheti Khobi scores more

18%

Shturmi at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Shturmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff