Kolkheti Khobi 0–1 Shturmi: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Kolkheti Khobi

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shturmi

4/24/2025

Liga 3 · Round 5Paata Tatarishvili Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kolkheti Khobi29%

×Draw26%

Shturmi45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kolkheti KhobiExpected goals in this matchShturmi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.47

Kolkheti Khobi

1.13

Shturmi

1.47

Shturmi creates 30% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 15 away

1.59

creates per match

1.53

1.41

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Kolkheti Khobi

1.59

Shturmi

1.53

allows per match

Kolkheti Khobi

1.41

Shturmi

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kolkheti Khobi+0.00on par

Shturmi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolkheti Khobi ↓

Shturmi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kolkheti Khobi or draw

55%

Kolkheti Khobi or Shturmi

74%

Draw or Shturmi

71%

Winning margin

Kolkheti Khobi wins by 2+

12%

Shturmi wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Kolkheti Khobi 1+ goals

68%

Kolkheti Khobi 2+ goals

31%

Kolkheti Khobi 3+ goals

11%

Shturmi 1+ goals

77%

Shturmi 2+ goals

43%

Shturmi 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Kolkheti Khobi (draw refunded)

39%

Shturmi (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolkheti Khobi at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

Shturmi away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolkheti Khobi attack 1.59 + Shturmi defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.13

Shturmi attack 1.53 + Kolkheti Khobi defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kolkheti Khobi scores more

29%

level

26%

Shturmi scores more

45%

Shturmi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shturmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff