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Shrewsbury vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Preview
15:00
Walsall
Walsall
1/9/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 24The Croud Meadow
Big match
46%
Walsall
model favours
29%25%46%

Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Shrewsbury29%
×Draw25%
Walsall46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shrewsbury
1.17
Walsall
1.56

Walsall creates 33% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Shrewsbury
1.11
Walsall
1.81

allows per match

Shrewsbury
1.32
Walsall
1.23

finishing

Shrewsbury-0.02on par
Walsall+0.02on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw
54%
Shrewsbury or Walsall
75%
Draw or Walsall
71%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+
11%
Walsall wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals
69%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
33%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
11%
Walsall 1+ goals
79%
Walsall 2+ goals
46%
Walsall 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
38%
Walsall (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.23 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.11 + Walsall defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Walsall attack 1.81 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shrewsbury scores more
29%
level
25%
Walsall scores more
46%

Walsall at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1.2 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Shrewsbury
Direct / counter-attacking
Walsall
Direct / counter-attacking
44%Possession44%
60%Pass accuracy64%
11.4Shots12.0
0.91xGBiggest gap1.47
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ShrewsburyWalsall

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Shrewsbury
3
Draws
2
Walsall
Avg goals: 1.2BTTS: 40%
1–21–10–10–00–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Shrewsbury
WWDDL
Walsall
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shrewsbury vs Walsall — Match Preview

Shrewsbury face Walsall on January 9, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Shrewsbury host Walsall at The Croud Meadow.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.