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Shrewsbury vs Rochdale — League Two 2018

Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Preview
19:45
Rochdale
Rochdale
2/9/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 30The Croud Meadow
Big match
39%
Shrewsbury
model favours
39%28%33%

Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Shrewsbury39%
×Draw28%
Rochdale33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shrewsbury
1.20
Rochdale
1.08

Shrewsbury creates 11% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 56 away

creates per match

Shrewsbury
1.04
Rochdale
0.95

allows per match

Shrewsbury
1.21
Rochdale
1.36

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw
67%
Shrewsbury or Rochdale
72%
Draw or Rochdale
61%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+
17%
Rochdale wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals
70%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
34%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
12%
Rochdale 1+ goals
66%
Rochdale 2+ goals
29%
Rochdale 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
54%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.04 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.20

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Shrewsbury defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shrewsbury scores more
39%
level
28%
Rochdale scores more
33%

Shrewsbury at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Shrewsbury
Direct / counter-attacking
Rochdale
Balanced
44%Possession51%
60%Pass accuracyBiggest gap70%
11.5Shots10.3
0.91xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ShrewsburyRochdale

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Shrewsbury
1
Draws
3
Rochdale
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 50%
2–01–20–10–01–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Shrewsbury
WWDDL
Rochdale
DLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shrewsbury face Rochdale (League Two)

League Two returns with Shrewsbury hosting Rochdale. Match starts February 9, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shrewsbury host Rochdale at The Croud Meadow.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.