Rochdale 1–0 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats

Rochdale

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shrewsbury

T. Smith 88'

2/1/2020

League One · Round 31Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Rochdale40%

×Draw27%

Shrewsbury33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochdaleExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.20

Rochdale

1.36

Shrewsbury

1.20

Rochdale creates 13% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 152 away

1.33

creates per match

0.86

1.54

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Rochdale

1.33

Shrewsbury

0.86

allows per match

Rochdale

1.54

Shrewsbury

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw

67%

Rochdale or Shrewsbury

73%

Draw or Shrewsbury

60%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+

19%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals

74%

Rochdale 2+ goals

39%

Rochdale 3+ goals

16%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

70%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

34%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)

55%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.54 · 70 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.33 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Rochdale defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rochdale scores more

40%

level

27%

Shrewsbury scores more

33%

Rochdale at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

Robert Sanchez

Rochdale · G

7.8

Match Events

56'

M. Done← S. Dooley

67'

T. Smith← A. Wilbraham

71'

S. Whalley← C. Lang

76'

R. McLaughlin← A. Morley

76'

83'

88'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RochdaleShrewsbury

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots15

1Corners2

5Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots15

4On Target4

4Off Target6

1Blocked5

4Inside Box9

5Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

448Total Passes494

355Accurate Passes415

79%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0