Shrewsbury 1–1 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Portsmouth

R. Street 52'

M. Pack 82'

4/15/2023

League One · Round 42Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Shrewsbury31%

×Draw27%

Portsmouth41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.32

Shrewsbury

1.11

Portsmouth

1.32

Portsmouth creates 19% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 135 away

1.13

creates per match

1.33

1.31

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.13

Portsmouth

1.33

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.31

Portsmouth

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

59%

Shrewsbury or Portsmouth

73%

Draw or Portsmouth

69%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

12%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

67%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

30%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

10%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

73%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

38%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

43%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.09 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.13 + Portsmouth defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Portsmouth attack 1.33 + Shrewsbury defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

31%

level

27%

Portsmouth scores more

41%

Portsmouth at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Pack

Portsmouth · M

7.5

Match Events

12'

Marlon Pack

52'

R. Street↳ E. Bennett

56'

Robert Street

56'

Clark Robertson

61'

Elliott Bennett

65'

M. Jacobs← R. Hackett-Fairchild

65'

P. Lane← O. Dale

65'

D. Scarlett← J. Pigott

72'

82'

83'

86'

86'

90+5'

90'

90+3'

D. Bernard← C. Robertson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyPortsmouth

Overview

36%Possession64%

9Total Shots13

3Corners6

13Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots13

4On Target2

4Off Target9

1Blocked2

7Inside Box12

2Outside Box1

Passing

36%Possession64%

245Total Passes430

141Accurate Passes328

58%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls12

5Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1