Shrewsbury 2–0 Plymouth: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Plymouth

F. Okenabirhie 68'

G. Docherty 35'

11/27/2018

League One · Round 20New Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Shrewsbury36%

×Draw26%

Plymouth38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.35

Shrewsbury

1.32

Plymouth

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 153 home / 114 away

1.14

creates per match

1.39

1.32

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Plymouth

1.39

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Plymouth

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

62%

Shrewsbury or Plymouth

74%

Draw or Plymouth

64%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

16%

Plymouth wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

73%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

38%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

15%

Plymouth 1+ goals

74%

Plymouth 2+ goals

39%

Plymouth 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

49%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Plymouth defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Plymouth attack 1.39 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

36%

level

26%

Plymouth scores more

38%

Plymouth at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

G. Docherty↳ J. Laurent

40'

David Fox

45'

Anthony Grant

46'

R. Taylor← J. Grant

46'

G. Carey← Ruben Lameiras

56'

A. Gilliead← O. Norburn

68'

F. Okenabirhie↳ L. Waterfall

71'

J. Riley← T. Moore

81'

L. John-Lewis← A. Amadi-Holloway

86'

Joe Riley

89'

Fejiri Okenabirhie

90+2'

Abobaker Eisa← F. Okenabirhie

Shrewsbury

Plymouth

1

14

4

23

22

▼

Moore

16

▼

8

7

6

11

▼

19

15

5

22

A

6

13

42

29

▼

Norburn

8

⚽

Docherty

28

A

Laurent

20

▼

Amadi-Hol

12

⚽

▼

Okenabirh

Manager: D. Coyne

56'▲A. Gilliead←▼O. Norburn

81'▲L. John-Lewis←▼A. Amadi-Holloway

90+2'▲Abobaker Eisa←▼F. Okenabirhie

Shrewsbury substitutes

18Gilliead14John-Lewis21Eisa1Coleman3Haynes23Colkett27Sears

Manager: D. Adams

46'▲R. Taylor←▼J. Grant

46'▲G. Carey←▼Ruben Lameiras

71'▲J. Riley←▼T. Moore

Plymouth substitutes

9Taylor10Carey2Riley13O'Keefe21Letheren24Grant35Jephcott