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Plymouth vs Shrewsbury — League One 2018

Plymouth
Plymouth
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
M. Whittaker 83'
N. Ennis 70'
J. Shipley 30'
10/25/2022League OneLeague One · Round 13Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Plymouth47%
×Draw26%
Shrewsbury27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
1.47
Shrewsbury
1.05

Plymouth creates 40% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 152 away

creates per match

Plymouth
1.55
Shrewsbury
0.86

allows per match

Plymouth
1.24
Shrewsbury
1.39

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par
Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
73%
Plymouth or Shrewsbury
74%
Draw or Shrewsbury
53%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
23%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
77%
Plymouth 2+ goals
43%
Plymouth 3+ goals
18%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
65%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
28%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
63%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.24 · 115 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.55 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.47

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Plymouth defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Plymouth scores more
47%
level
26%
Shrewsbury scores more
27%

Plymouth at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
M. WhittakerPlymouthPlymouth · F
8.2

Match Events

-5'
Robert Street
30'
J. Shipley↳ C. Saydee
45+3'
N. Ennis← F. Azaz
46'
J. Edwards← C. Grant
46'
S. Cosgrove← R. Hardie
62'
R. Pyke← C. Saydee
68'
Sam Cosgrove
70'
N. Ennis↳ M. Whittaker
77'
B. Galloway← M. Butcher
78'
R. Bowman← R. Street
83'
M. Whittaker↳ B. Galloway
87'
Luke Leahy
88'
A. O'Brien← J. Shipley

Possession

70%Plymouth

Shots

17Plymouth

Pass accuracy

56%Plymouth

Statistics

PlymouthShrewsbury
Overview
70%Possession30%
17Total Shots14
9Corners4
9Fouls9
Shots
17Total Shots14
5On Target3
4Off Target7
8Blocked4
6Inside Box11
11Outside Box3
Passing
70%Possession30%
545Total Passes228
449Accurate Passes145
82%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

League One: Plymouth 2–1 Shrewsbury

Plymouth beat Shrewsbury 2-1 in League One on October 25, 2022.

Goals: J. Shipley (30'), N. Ennis (70'), M. Whittaker (83').

Plymouth controlled possession (70%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Home Park in Plymouth.