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Shrewsbury vs Peterborough — League One 2018

Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Peterborough
Peterborough
E. Ebanks-Landell 45+1'
11/5/2019League OneLeague One · Round 7Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 153+ matches

Shrewsbury35%
×Draw26%
Peterborough39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shrewsbury
1.30
Peterborough
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 153 home / 157 away

creates per match

Shrewsbury
1.14
Peterborough
1.46

allows per match

Shrewsbury
1.32
Peterborough
1.46

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par
Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw
61%
Shrewsbury or Peterborough
74%
Draw or Peterborough
65%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+
15%
Peterborough wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals
73%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
37%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
14%
Peterborough 1+ goals
75%
Peterborough 2+ goals
40%
Peterborough 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
47%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Peterborough defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Peterborough attack 1.46 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shrewsbury scores more
35%
level
26%
Peterborough scores more
39%

Peterborough at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. MurphyShrewsburyShrewsbury · G
7.8

Match Events

42'
Ivan Toney
45'
Rhys Bennett
45+1'
E. Ebanks-Landell
54'
David Edwards
59'
F. Okenabirhie← J. Cummings
59'
S. Dembele← G. Boyd
59'
I. Kanu← M. Maddison
65'
L. Thompson← D. Edwards
77'
Louis Thompson
84'
J. Ward← N. Thompson
88'
Dan Butler
90'
Joe Murphy
90+2'
B. Walker← S. Whalley

Possession

44%Shrewsbury

Shots

5Shrewsbury

Pass accuracy

48%Shrewsbury

Statistics

ShrewsburyPeterborough
Overview
44%Possession56%
5Total Shots8
7Corners4
16Fouls11
Shots
5Total Shots8
1On Target2
3Off Target4
1Blocked2
4Inside Box3
1Outside Box5
Passing
44%Possession56%
342Total Passes442
245Accurate Passes341
72%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
16Fouls11
3Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

League One: Shrewsbury 1–0 Peterborough

Shrewsbury beat Peterborough 1-0 in League One on November 5, 2019.

Goals: E. Ebanks-Landell (45+1').

Peterborough controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 5.

The match was played at Montgomery Waters Meadow in Shrewsbury, Shropshire.