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Peterborough vs Shrewsbury — League One 2018

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
1/20/2024League OneLeague One · Round 29Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 155+ matches

Peterborough52%
×Draw25%
Shrewsbury23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.63
Shrewsbury
1.01

Peterborough creates 61% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 155 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.90
Shrewsbury
0.85

allows per match

Peterborough
1.17
Shrewsbury
1.36

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
77%
Peterborough or Shrewsbury
75%
Draw or Shrewsbury
48%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
28%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
80%
Peterborough 2+ goals
48%
Peterborough 3+ goals
22%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
64%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
27%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
69%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.36 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.90 + Shrewsbury defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.63

Shrewsbury attack 0.85 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Peterborough scores more
52%
level
25%
Shrewsbury scores more
23%

Peterborough at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Shrewsbury

Peterborough beat Shrewsbury 2-1 in League One on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.