Shrewsbury 1–2 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Oxford United

R. Bowman 60'

C. Brannagan 83' (pen)

M. Taylor 11'

3/12/2022

League One · Round 38Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Shrewsbury35%

×Draw26%

Oxford United39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.34

Shrewsbury

1.26

Oxford United

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 153 home / 135 away

1.14

creates per match

1.36

1.32

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Oxford United

1.36

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Oxford United

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

61%

Shrewsbury or Oxford United

74%

Draw or Oxford United

65%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

15%

Oxford United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

72%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

36%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

13%

Oxford United 1+ goals

74%

Oxford United 2+ goals

39%

Oxford United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

47%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Oxford United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Oxford United attack 1.36 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

35%

level

26%

Oxford United scores more

39%

Oxford United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

E. Bennett

Shrewsbury · M

7.7

Match Events

11'

M. Taylor

60'

R. Bowman↳ E. Bennett

68'

B. Bodin← N. Holland

77'

M. McGuane← G. Whyte

82'

Matthew Pennington

83'

C. BrannaganPenalty

85'

S. Whalley← J. Vela

85'

T. Bloxham← E. Bennett

87'

S. Janneh← D. Udoh

87'

S. Winnall← M. Taylor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyOxford

Overview

46%Possession54%

14Total Shots8

8Corners0

12Fouls3

Shots

14Total Shots8

5On Target3

5Off Target2

4Blocked3

10Inside Box4

4Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

377Total Passes457

259Accurate Passes342

69%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls3

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides2