Shrewsbury 2–1 Milton Keynes Dons: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Milton Keynes Dons

J. Shipley 45+2'

T. Bayliss 24'

Z. Jules 54'

10/8/2022

League One · Round 14Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Shrewsbury36%

×Draw26%

Milton Keynes Dons38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.33

Shrewsbury

1.29

Milton Keynes Dons

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 28 away

1.03

creates per match

1.18

1.48

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.03

Milton Keynes Dons

1.18

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.48

Milton Keynes Dons

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

62%

Shrewsbury or Milton Keynes Dons

74%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

64%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

16%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

72%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

37%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

14%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

74%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

38%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

49%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.03 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.29

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.18 + Shrewsbury defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

36%

level

26%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

38%

Milton Keynes Dons at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

T. Bayliss

Shrewsbury · M

7.9

Match Events

24'

T. Bayliss↳ E. Bennett

40'

R. Street← M. Pennington

45+4'

Daniel Oyegoke

45+2'

J. Shipley↳ C. Saydee

46'

M. Smith← D. Burns

46'

B. Johnson← J. Tucker

54'

59'

64'

70'

78'

78'

L. Barry← J. McEachran

85'

A. O'Brien← C. Saydee

90+6'

Robert Street

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyMilton

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots13

7Corners12

7Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots13

5On Target2

3Off Target3

3Blocked8

10Inside Box7

1Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

363Total Passes360

288Accurate Passes281

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1