Shrewsbury 0–3 Luton: Result & Stats | League One

Shrewsbury

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Luton

J. Collins 69', 30'

M. Pearson 53'

2/2/2019

League One · Round 31New Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Shrewsbury32%

×Draw26%

Luton41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.39

Shrewsbury

1.19

Luton

1.39

Luton creates 17% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 44 away

1.14

creates per match

1.45

1.32

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Luton

1.45

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Luton

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Luton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

59%

Shrewsbury or Luton

74%

Draw or Luton

68%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

13%

Luton wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

70%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

33%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

12%

Luton 1+ goals

75%

Luton 2+ goals

40%

Luton 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

44%

Luton (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Luton away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Luton defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Luton attack 1.45 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

32%

level

26%

Luton scores more

41%

Luton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

J. Collins↳ L. Berry

53'

M. Pearson

55'

Anthony Grant

55'

S. Whalley← R. Vincelot

63'

S. Payne← T. Campbell

69'

J. Collins↳ K. LuaLua

70'

71'

72'

73'

76'

J. Laurent← O. Norburn

77'

Scott Golbourne

77'

D. Potts← A. McCormack

83'

G. Moncur← L. Berry

Shrewsbury

Luton

36

Shea

5

Bradley

6

⚽

Pearson

4

▼

McCormack

25

A

▼

LuaLua

11

Shinnie

8

A

▼

17

7

2

19

⚽2

15

23

5

22

13

16

▼

Vincelot

42

Grant

29

▼

Norburn

8

Docherty

12

Okenabirh

11

▼

Campbell

Manager: S. Ricketts

55'▲S. Whalley←▼R. Vincelot

63'▲S. Payne←▼T. Campbell

76'▲J. Laurent←▼O. Norburn

Shrewsbury substitutes

7Whalley50Payne28Laurent1Mitchell2Williams20Amadi-Holloway27Sears

Manager: M. Harford

70'▲D. Hylton←▼K. LuaLua

77'▲D. Potts←▼A. McCormack

83'▲G. Moncur←▼L. Berry

Luton substitutes

9Hylton3Potts20Moncur12Baptiste23Cummings40Isted44Sheehan

League One: Shrewsbury 0–3 Luton

Luton beat Shrewsbury 3-0 in League One on February 2, 2019.

Goals: J. Collins (30', 69'), M. Pearson (53').

The match was played at New Meadow in Shrewsbury.

Shrewsbury vs Luton — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League One: Shrewsbury 0–3 Luton