Shrewsbury 0–1 Lincoln: Result & Stats | League One

Shrewsbury

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lincoln

8/19/2023

League One · Round 4The Croud Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 156+ matches

Shrewsbury34%

×Draw27%

Lincoln39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.29

Shrewsbury

1.17

Lincoln

1.29

Lincoln creates 10% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 158 away

1.13

creates per match

1.26

1.31

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.13

Lincoln

1.26

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.31

Lincoln

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

61%

Shrewsbury or Lincoln

73%

Draw or Lincoln

66%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

14%

Lincoln wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

69%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

33%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

11%

Lincoln 1+ goals

72%

Lincoln 2+ goals

37%

Lincoln 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

46%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.13 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Shrewsbury defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

34%

level

27%

Lincoln scores more

39%

Lincoln at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff