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Shrewsbury vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lincoln
Lincoln
T. Bayliss 60'
L. Leahy 45' (pen)
12/3/2022League OneLeague One · Round 20Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 153+ matches

Shrewsbury34%
×Draw27%
Lincoln39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shrewsbury
1.18
Lincoln
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 153 home / 156 away

creates per match

Shrewsbury
1.14
Lincoln
1.26

allows per match

Shrewsbury
1.32
Lincoln
1.22

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw
61%
Shrewsbury or Lincoln
73%
Draw or Lincoln
66%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+
14%
Lincoln wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals
69%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
33%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
12%
Lincoln 1+ goals
72%
Lincoln 2+ goals
37%
Lincoln 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
46%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.18

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shrewsbury scores more
34%
level
27%
Lincoln scores more
39%

Lincoln at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
M. PenningtonShrewsburyShrewsbury · D
7.9

Match Events

10'
Cheyenne Dunkley
31'
Charles Vernam
43'
Joe Walsh
45'
L. LeahyPenalty
60'
T. Bayliss↳ J. Shipley
68'
T. Hopper← C. Vernam
81'
Paudie O’Connor
82'
R. Bowman← C. Saydee
83'
R. Pyke← R. Street
86'
Tom Bayliss

Possession

43%Shrewsbury

Shots

10Shrewsbury

Pass accuracy

47%Shrewsbury

Statistics

ShrewsburyLincoln
Overview
43%Possession57%
10Total Shots13
5Corners5
12Fouls8
Shots
10Total Shots13
4On Target3
3Off Target4
3Blocked6
5Inside Box8
5Outside Box5
Passing
43%Possession57%
391Total Passes517
256Accurate Passes381
65%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls8
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

League One: Shrewsbury 2–0 Lincoln

Shrewsbury beat Lincoln 2-0 in League One on December 3, 2022.

Goals: L. Leahy (45' pen), T. Bayliss (60').

Lincoln controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Montgomery Waters Meadow in Shrewsbury, Shropshire.