Shrewsbury vs Grimsby: Preview & Prediction

Shrewsbury

Preview

18:45

Grimsby

4/27/2027

League Two · Round 44The Croud Meadow

46%

Grimsby

model favours

29%25%46%

Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

50%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Shrewsbury29%

×Draw25%

Grimsby46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchGrimsby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.53

Shrewsbury

1.15

Grimsby

1.53

Grimsby creates 33% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.10

creates per match

1.67

1.40

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.10

Grimsby

1.67

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.40

Grimsby

1.20

+0.01on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.01on par

Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Grimsby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

54%

Shrewsbury or Grimsby

75%

Draw or Grimsby

71%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

11%

Grimsby wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

68%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

32%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

11%

Grimsby 1+ goals

78%

Grimsby 2+ goals

45%

Grimsby 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

38%

Grimsby (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.40 · 9 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.20 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.10 + Grimsby defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Grimsby attack 1.67 + Shrewsbury defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

29%

level

25%

Grimsby scores more

46%

Grimsby at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Shrewsbury raise their game against the top half — 29% wins vs the upper half, only 27% vs the lower
Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches
Style contrast — Shrewsbury play Direct / counter-attacking, Grimsby Attack-heavy
Shrewsbury sit 19, Grimsby 6 in the table