Grimsby 1–0 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats | League Two

Grimsby

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shrewsbury

J. Amaluzor 83'

12/29/2025

League Two · Round 23Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Grimsby52%

×Draw27%

Shrewsbury21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrimsbyExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.79

Grimsby

1.42

Shrewsbury

0.79

Grimsby creates 80% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.62

creates per match

0.74

0.85

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Grimsby

1.62

Shrewsbury

0.74

allows per match

Grimsby

0.85

Shrewsbury

1.21

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Grimsby+0.38scores more

Shrewsbury-0.07on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw

79%

Grimsby or Shrewsbury

73%

Draw or Shrewsbury

48%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+

26%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals

76%

Grimsby 2+ goals

41%

Grimsby 3+ goals

17%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

55%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

19%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)

71%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 11 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.21 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.62 + Shrewsbury defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.42

Shrewsbury attack 0.74 + Grimsby defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Grimsby scores more

52%

level

27%

Shrewsbury scores more

21%

Grimsby at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

C. McJannet

Grimsby · D

8.0

Match Events

48'

55'

62'

68'

69'

73'

G. McEachran← G. D. Turi

73'

J. Amaluzor← D. Burns

73'

J. Kabia← J. Soonsup-Bell

83'

T. McDermott← I. Kabia

83'

J. Amaluzor

90+1'

Taylor Perry

90'

C. Aneke← T. Sang

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrimsbyShrewsbury

Overview

63%Possession37%

16Total Shots6

0.87Expected Goals (xG)0.49

6Corners2

7Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots6

5On Target1

9Off Target2

2Blocked3

10Inside Box3

6Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

541Total Passes311

393Accurate Passes156

73%Pass Accuracy50%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4