Shrewsbury 3–2 Bolton: Result & Stats | League One

Shrewsbury

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bolton

C. Dunkley 90+2'

C. Saydee 79'

R. Street 2'

D. Charles 71' (pen), 13'

12/10/2022

League One · Round 21Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Shrewsbury36%

×Draw27%

Bolton37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.25

Shrewsbury

1.23

Bolton

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 153 home / 135 away

1.14

creates per match

1.19

1.32

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Bolton

1.19

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Bolton

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

63%

Shrewsbury or Bolton

73%

Draw or Bolton

64%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

15%

Bolton wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

71%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

35%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

13%

Bolton 1+ goals

71%

Bolton 2+ goals

36%

Bolton 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

49%

Bolton (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.33 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Bolton defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bolton attack 1.19 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

36%

level

27%

Bolton scores more

37%

Bolton at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

C. Dunkley

Shrewsbury · D

7.7

Match Events

2'

R. Street↳ J. Shipley

13'

D. Charles↳ G. Jones

45+1'

Josh Sheehan

59'

R. Pyke← C. Winchester

65'

Christian Saydee

70'

Marko Maroši

71'

D. CharlesPenalty

73'

Robert Street

73'

Jordan Shipley

79'

C. Saydee↳ C. Dunkley

82'

A. Bakayoko← O. Afolayan

82'

J. Böðvarsson← D. Charles

85'

R. Bowman← C. Saydee

86'

T. Bloxham← R. Street

90+2'

C. Dunkley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyBolton

Overview

42%Possession58%

8Total Shots9

6Corners2

14Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots9

6On Target3

1Off Target3

1Blocked3

6Inside Box7

2Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

254Total Passes368

123Accurate Passes218

48%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls11

4Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0