Bolton 2–2 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats | League One

Bolton

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Shrewsbury

10/5/2024

League One · Round 10Toughsheet Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Bolton51%

×Draw26%

Shrewsbury24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.97

Bolton

1.54

Shrewsbury

0.97

Bolton creates 59% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 155 away

1.73

creates per match

0.85

1.09

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Bolton

1.73

Shrewsbury

0.85

allows per match

Bolton

1.09

Shrewsbury

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

76%

Bolton or Shrewsbury

74%

Draw or Shrewsbury

49%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

26%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

79%

Bolton 2+ goals

45%

Bolton 3+ goals

20%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

62%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

25%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

68%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.09 · 139 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.36 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.73 + Shrewsbury defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.54

Shrewsbury attack 0.85 + Bolton defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bolton scores more

51%

level

26%

Shrewsbury scores more

24%

Bolton at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff