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Shrewsbury vs Bolton — League One 2018

Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
CANC
18:45
Bolton
Bolton
4/21/2020League OneLeague One · Round 29Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Shrewsbury36%
×Draw27%
Bolton37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shrewsbury
1.23
Bolton
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 153 home / 135 away

creates per match

Shrewsbury
1.14
Bolton
1.19

allows per match

Shrewsbury
1.32
Bolton
1.33

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par
Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw
63%
Shrewsbury or Bolton
73%
Draw or Bolton
64%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+
15%
Bolton wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals
71%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
35%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
13%
Bolton 1+ goals
71%
Bolton 2+ goals
36%
Bolton 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
49%
Bolton (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.33 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Bolton defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bolton attack 1.19 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shrewsbury scores more
36%
level
27%
Bolton scores more
37%

Bolton at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shrewsbury vs Bolton — Match Preview

Shrewsbury face Bolton on April 21, 2020 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Shrewsbury host Bolton at Montgomery Waters Meadow.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.