Shrewsbury 3–0 Bala Town: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

3 – 0

Bala Town

8/11/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Shrewsbury85%

×Draw11%

Bala Town3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchBala Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

0.36

Shrewsbury

2.60

Bala Town

0.36

Shrewsbury creates 622% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.20

creates per match

0.33

0.40

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Shrewsbury

2.20

Bala Town

0.33

allows per match

Shrewsbury

0.40

Bala Town

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Bala Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Bala Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–015%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

97%

Shrewsbury or Bala Town

89%

Draw or Bala Town

15%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

64%

Bala Town wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

92%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

73%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

47%

Bala Town 1+ goals

30%

Bala Town 2+ goals

5%

Bala Town 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

96%

Bala Town (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Bala Town away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 2.20 + Bala Town defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.60

Bala Town attack 0.33 + Shrewsbury defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

85%

level

11%

Bala Town scores more

3%

Shrewsbury at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff