Shrewsbury Town 3–2 Northampton Town

Shrewsbury Town

3 – 2

Northampton Town

11/3/2024

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundThe Croud Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shrewsbury Town37%

×Draw19%

Northampton Town44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shrewsbury TownExpected goals in this matchNorthampton Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

2.55

Shrewsbury Town

2.33

Northampton Town

2.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

2.25

creates per match

1.60

3.50

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Shrewsbury Town

2.25

Northampton Town

1.60

allows per match

Shrewsbury Town

3.50

Northampton Town

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury Town+0.00on par

Northampton Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury Town ↓

Northampton Town →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Shrewsbury Town or draw

56%

Shrewsbury Town or Northampton Town

81%

Draw or Northampton Town

63%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury Town wins by 2+

21%

Northampton Town wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Shrewsbury Town 1+ goals

90%

Shrewsbury Town 2+ goals

67%

Shrewsbury Town 3+ goals

41%

Northampton Town 1+ goals

92%

Northampton Town 2+ goals

72%

Northampton Town 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury Town (draw refunded)

45%

Northampton Town (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury Town at home — creates 2.25, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Northampton Town away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury Town attack 2.25 + Northampton Town defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.33

Northampton Town attack 1.60 + Shrewsbury Town defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shrewsbury Town scores more

37%

level

19%

Northampton Town scores more

44%

Northampton Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Northampton Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff