Shrewsbury Town 1–2 Lye Town W: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury Town

1 – 2

Lye Town W

11/14/2021

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundMontgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shrewsbury Town44%

×Draw19%

Lye Town W38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shrewsbury TownExpected goals in this matchLye Town W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

2.45

Shrewsbury Town

2.63

Lye Town W

2.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

2.25

creates per match

1.40

3.50

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Shrewsbury Town

2.25

Lye Town W

1.40

allows per match

Shrewsbury Town

3.50

Lye Town W

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury Town+0.00on par

Lye Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury Town ↓

Lye Town W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–34%

1–43%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Shrewsbury Town or draw

62%

Shrewsbury Town or Lye Town W

81%

Draw or Lye Town W

56%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury Town wins by 2+

26%

Lye Town W wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Shrewsbury Town 1+ goals

93%

Shrewsbury Town 2+ goals

73%

Shrewsbury Town 3+ goals

48%

Lye Town W 1+ goals

91%

Lye Town W 2+ goals

70%

Lye Town W 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury Town (draw refunded)

54%

Lye Town W (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury Town at home — creates 2.25, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Lye Town W away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury Town attack 2.25 + Lye Town W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.63

Lye Town W attack 1.40 + Shrewsbury Town defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shrewsbury Town scores more

44%

level

19%

Lye Town W scores more

38%

Shrewsbury Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shrewsbury Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff