Shrewsbury Town 3–2 Lincoln United W

Shrewsbury Town

3 – 2

Lincoln United W

10/13/2024

FA Women's Cup · 3rd Round QualifyingThe Croud Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shrewsbury Town24%

×Draw17%

Lincoln United W59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shrewsbury TownExpected goals in this matchLincoln United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

3.13

Shrewsbury Town

2.00

Lincoln United W

3.13

Lincoln United W creates 56% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.25

creates per match

2.75

3.50

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Shrewsbury Town

2.25

Lincoln United W

2.75

allows per match

Shrewsbury Town

3.50

Lincoln United W

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury Town+0.00on par

Lincoln United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury Town ↓

Lincoln United W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–36%

1–45%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Shrewsbury Town or draw

41%

Shrewsbury Town or Lincoln United W

83%

Draw or Lincoln United W

76%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury Town wins by 2+

12%

Lincoln United W wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Shrewsbury Town 1+ goals

86%

Shrewsbury Town 2+ goals

59%

Shrewsbury Town 3+ goals

32%

Lincoln United W 1+ goals

95%

Lincoln United W 2+ goals

81%

Lincoln United W 3+ goals

59%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury Town (draw refunded)

29%

Lincoln United W (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury Town at home — creates 2.25, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Lincoln United W away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury Town attack 2.25 + Lincoln United W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.00

Lincoln United W attack 2.75 + Shrewsbury Town defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Shrewsbury Town scores more

24%

level

17%

Lincoln United W scores more

59%

Lincoln United W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Lincoln United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff