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Shortan vs Xorazm — Pro League A 2026

Shortan
Shortan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Xorazm
Xorazm
10/17/2024Pro League APro League A · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Shortan56%
×Draw27%
Xorazm17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shortan
1.44
Xorazm
0.67

Shortan creates 115% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

creates per match

Shortan
1.45
Xorazm
0.64

allows per match

Shortan
0.70
Xorazm
1.43

finishing

Shortan+0.00on par
Xorazm+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shortan ↓

Xorazm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shortan or draw
83%
Shortan or Xorazm
73%
Draw or Xorazm
44%

Winning margin

Shortan wins by 2+
28%
Xorazm wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shortan 1+ goals
76%
Shortan 2+ goals
42%
Shortan 3+ goals
18%
Xorazm 1+ goals
49%
Xorazm 2+ goals
15%
Xorazm 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Shortan (draw refunded)
76%
Xorazm (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shortan at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Xorazm away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shortan attack 1.45 + Xorazm defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Xorazm attack 0.64 + Shortan defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shortan scores more
56%
level
27%
Xorazm scores more
17%

Shortan at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shortan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League A: Shortan 1–1 Xorazm

Shortan and Xorazm drew 1-1 in Pro League A on October 17, 2024.