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Shortan vs Qiziriq — Pro League A 2026

Shortan
Shortan
Preview
13:00
Qiziriq
Qiziriq
9/12/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 19Stadion Guzor
61%
Shortan
model favours
61%23%16%

Shortan score first in only 4% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Shortan61%
×Draw23%
Qiziriq16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shortan
1.79
Qiziriq
0.78

Shortan creates 129% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 7 away

creates per match

Shortan
1.45
Qiziriq
0.86

allows per match

Shortan
0.70
Qiziriq
2.14

finishing

Shortan+0.00on par
Qiziriq+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shortan ↓

Qiziriq →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shortan or draw
84%
Shortan or Qiziriq
77%
Draw or Qiziriq
39%

Winning margin

Shortan wins by 2+
35%
Qiziriq wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shortan 1+ goals
83%
Shortan 2+ goals
53%
Shortan 3+ goals
26%
Qiziriq 1+ goals
54%
Qiziriq 2+ goals
18%
Qiziriq 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shortan (draw refunded)
79%
Qiziriq (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shortan at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Qiziriq away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shortan attack 1.45 + Qiziriq defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.79

Qiziriq attack 0.86 + Shortan defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Shortan scores more
61%
level
23%
Qiziriq scores more
16%

Shortan at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Shortan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shortan sit 2, Qiziriq 13 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Shortan
LLWWW
Qiziriq
LLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shortan vs Qiziriq — Match Preview

Shortan face Qiziriq on September 12, 2026 in this Pro League A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Shortan host Qiziriq at Stadion Guzor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.