Qiziriq 0–1 Shortan: Result & Stats | Pro League A

Qiziriq

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shortan

4/29/2026

Pro League A · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Qiziriq23%

×Draw25%

Shortan51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QiziriqExpected goals in this matchShortan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.56

Qiziriq

0.96

Shortan

1.56

Shortan creates 63% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 19 away

0.50

creates per match

1.11

2.00

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Qiziriq

0.50

Shortan

1.11

allows per match

Qiziriq

2.00

Shortan

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qiziriq+0.00on par

Shortan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qiziriq ↓

Shortan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Qiziriq or draw

49%

Qiziriq or Shortan

75%

Draw or Shortan

77%

Winning margin

Qiziriq wins by 2+

8%

Shortan wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Qiziriq 1+ goals

62%

Qiziriq 2+ goals

25%

Qiziriq 3+ goals

7%

Shortan 1+ goals

79%

Shortan 2+ goals

46%

Shortan 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Qiziriq (draw refunded)

31%

Shortan (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qiziriq at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Shortan away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qiziriq attack 0.50 + Shortan defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 0.96

Shortan attack 1.11 + Qiziriq defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Qiziriq scores more

23%

level

25%

Shortan scores more

51%

Shortan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Shortan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff