Shortan 2–0 Pakhtakor II: Result & Stats

Shortan

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pakhtakor II

B. Suvonov 46'

B. Saidmurodov 25' (OG)

5/5/2026

Pro League A · Round 7Stadion Guzor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Shortan58%

×Draw24%

Pakhtakor II18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShortanExpected goals in this matchPakhtakor II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.85

Shortan

1.73

Pakhtakor II

0.85

Shortan creates 104% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 5 away

1.45

creates per match

1.00

0.70

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Shortan

1.45

Pakhtakor II

1.00

allows per match

Shortan

0.70

Pakhtakor II

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shortan+0.00on par

Pakhtakor II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shortan ↓

Pakhtakor II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shortan or draw

82%

Shortan or Pakhtakor II

76%

Draw or Pakhtakor II

42%

Winning margin

Shortan wins by 2+

33%

Pakhtakor II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shortan 1+ goals

82%

Shortan 2+ goals

52%

Shortan 3+ goals

25%

Pakhtakor II 1+ goals

57%

Pakhtakor II 2+ goals

21%

Pakhtakor II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Shortan (draw refunded)

76%

Pakhtakor II (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shortan at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Pakhtakor II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shortan attack 1.45 + Pakhtakor II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Pakhtakor II attack 1.00 + Shortan defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Shortan scores more

58%

level

24%

Pakhtakor II scores more

18%

Shortan at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Shortan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

B. SaidmurodovOwn goal

46'

B. Suvonov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff