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Shortan vs Neftchi — Super League 2026

Shortan
Shortan
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Neftchi
Neftchi
10/25/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 26Stadion Guzar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Shortan28%
×Draw26%
Neftchi46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shortan
1.08
Neftchi
1.48

Neftchi creates 37% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 61 away

creates per match

Shortan
1.36
Neftchi
1.31

allows per match

Shortan
1.64
Neftchi
0.79

finishing

Shortan+0.00on par
Neftchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 53Over: 4753%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shortan ↓

Neftchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shortan or draw
54%
Shortan or Neftchi
74%
Draw or Neftchi
72%

Winning margin

Shortan wins by 2+
11%
Neftchi wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Shortan 1+ goals
66%
Shortan 2+ goals
29%
Shortan 3+ goals
10%
Neftchi 1+ goals
77%
Neftchi 2+ goals
43%
Neftchi 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Shortan (draw refunded)
37%
Neftchi (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shortan at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

Neftchi away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shortan attack 1.36 + Neftchi defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.08

Neftchi attack 1.31 + Shortan defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shortan scores more
28%
level
26%
Neftchi scores more
46%

Neftchi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Neftchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Shortan 0–2 Neftchi

Neftchi beat Shortan 2-0 in Super League on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Guzar in Guzar.