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Shortan vs Mash'al — Pro League A 2026

Shortan
Shortan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mash'al
Mash'al
S. Nuriddinov 90+6'
M. Jumaev 89'
I. Ganikhonov 45'
6/3/2024Pro League APro League A · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Shortan40%
×Draw31%
Mash'al28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shortan
1.08
Mash'al
0.85

Shortan creates 27% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

creates per match

Shortan
1.45
Mash'al
1.00

allows per match

Shortan
0.70
Mash'al
0.71

finishing

Shortan+0.00on par
Mash'al+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shortan ↓

Mash'al →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Shortan or draw
72%
Shortan or Mash'al
69%
Draw or Mash'al
60%

Winning margin

Shortan wins by 2+
16%
Mash'al wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shortan 1+ goals
66%
Shortan 2+ goals
29%
Shortan 3+ goals
10%
Mash'al 1+ goals
57%
Mash'al 2+ goals
21%
Mash'al 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shortan (draw refunded)
59%
Mash'al (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shortan at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Mash'al away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shortan attack 1.45 + Mash'al defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.08

Mash'al attack 1.00 + Shortan defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shortan scores more
40%
level
31%
Mash'al scores more
28%

Shortan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shortan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
I. Ganikhonov
85'
89'
M. Jumaev
90+6'
S. Nuriddinov
90+8'
S. Nuriddinov
90+10'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shortan vs Mash'al

Shortan beat Mash'al 2-1 in Pro League A on June 3, 2024.

Goals: I. Ganikhonov (45'), M. Jumaev (89'), S. Nuriddinov (90+6').