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Shortan vs FarDu — Pro League A 2026

Shortan
Shortan
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
FarDu
FarDu
4/15/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 3Stadion Guzor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Shortan57%
×Draw25%
FarDu18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shortan
1.60
FarDu
0.79

Shortan creates 103% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 16 away

creates per match

Shortan
1.45
FarDu
0.88

allows per match

Shortan
0.70
FarDu
1.75

finishing

Shortan+0.00on par
FarDu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 57Over: 4357%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shortan ↓

FarDu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shortan or draw
82%
Shortan or FarDu
75%
Draw or FarDu
43%

Winning margin

Shortan wins by 2+
30%
FarDu wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shortan 1+ goals
80%
Shortan 2+ goals
47%
Shortan 3+ goals
22%
FarDu 1+ goals
55%
FarDu 2+ goals
19%
FarDu 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shortan (draw refunded)
75%
FarDu (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shortan at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

FarDu away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shortan attack 1.45 + FarDu defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.60

FarDu attack 0.88 + Shortan defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Shortan scores more
57%
level
25%
FarDu scores more
18%

Shortan at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shortan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League A: Shortan 2–2 FarDu

Shortan and FarDu drew 2-2 in Pro League A on April 15, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Guzor in Guzar.