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Shortan vs Aral — Pro League A 2026

Shortan
Shortan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aral
Aral
M. Zoirov 64'
R. Kalmagambetov 6'
4/8/2024Pro League APro League A · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Shortan49%
×Draw27%
Aral25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shortan
1.43
Aral
0.93

Shortan creates 54% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 29 away

creates per match

Shortan
1.45
Aral
1.17

allows per match

Shortan
0.70
Aral
1.41

finishing

Shortan+0.00on par
Aral+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shortan ↓

Aral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shortan or draw
75%
Shortan or Aral
73%
Draw or Aral
51%

Winning margin

Shortan wins by 2+
24%
Aral wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shortan 1+ goals
76%
Shortan 2+ goals
42%
Shortan 3+ goals
17%
Aral 1+ goals
61%
Aral 2+ goals
24%
Aral 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shortan (draw refunded)
66%
Aral (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shortan at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Aral away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shortan attack 1.45 + Aral defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.43

Aral attack 1.17 + Shortan defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Shortan scores more
49%
level
27%
Aral scores more
25%

Shortan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Shortan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
R. Kalmagambetov
64'
M. Zoirov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shortan vs Aral

Shortan and Aral drew 1-1 in Pro League A on April 8, 2024.

Goals: R. Kalmagambetov (6'), M. Zoirov (64').