Shortan 1–0 Andijan: Result & Stats | Super League

Shortan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Andijan

D. Narzullaev 33'

5/17/2025

Super League · Round 10Stadion Guzar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Shortan41%

×Draw25%

Andijan33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShortanExpected goals in this matchAndijan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.30

Shortan

1.47

Andijan

1.30

Shortan creates 13% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 88 away

1.36

creates per match

0.97

1.64

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Shortan

1.36

Andijan

0.97

allows per match

Shortan

1.64

Andijan

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shortan+0.00on par

Andijan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shortan ↓

Andijan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Shortan or draw

67%

Shortan or Andijan

75%

Draw or Andijan

59%

Winning margin

Shortan wins by 2+

20%

Andijan wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Shortan 1+ goals

77%

Shortan 2+ goals

43%

Shortan 3+ goals

18%

Andijan 1+ goals

73%

Andijan 2+ goals

37%

Andijan 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Shortan (draw refunded)

55%

Andijan (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shortan at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

Andijan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.58 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shortan attack 1.36 + Andijan defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.47

Andijan attack 0.97 + Shortan defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shortan scores more

41%

level

25%

Andijan scores more

33%

Shortan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shortan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

D. Abdumannopov

33'

D. Narzullaev↳ T. Mamasidikov

41'

M. Djurickovic

45+5'

B. Rahmatov

46'

I. Shaykulov← I. Mashukov

60'

A. Saidkhonov← S. Nuriddinov

65'

U. Ismonaliev← B. Abdumannonov

68'

A. Toshkuziev← J. Mannonov

68'

K. Saidazimov← B. Rahmatov

79'

M. Jabborov← G. Kodirov

79'

C. Tursunkulov← D. Narzullaev

90+3'

O. Zoteev

90+1'

A. Gulomov← A. Komilov

90+1'

D. Temirov← I. Abduganiev

Shortan

Andijan

25

Rakhimov

33

Zoteev

14

▼

4

66

23

71

▼

Abdumanno

10

▼

Abduganie

11

▼

6

7

1

55

3

4

24

⚽

▼

Narzullae

8

▼

Nuriddino

6

Kuziev

33

▼

Rahmatov

15

▼

Mannonov

10

A

Mamasidik

45

▼

Kodirov

60'▲A. Saidkhonov←▼S. Nuriddinov

68'▲A. Toshkuziev←▼J. Mannonov

68'▲K. Saidazimov←▼B. Rahmatov

79'▲M. Jabborov←▼G. Kodirov

79'▲C. Tursunkulov←▼D. Narzullaev

Shortan substitutes

35Abduraimov5Abdurazzakov11Sharipov14Toshkuziev21Jabborov27Tursunkulov47Anvarov77Saidkhonov99Saidazimov

46'▲I. Shaykulov←▼I. Mashukov

65'▲U. Ismonaliev←▼B. Abdumannonov

90+1'▲A. Gulomov←▼A. Komilov

90+1'▲D. Temirov←▼I. Abduganiev

Andijan substitutes

70Abdugafforov1Adkhamov13Azimov5Gulomov22Ismonaliev18Temirov88Yorkinboyev20Solijonov8Shaykulov

Super League: Shortan 1–0 Andijan

Shortan beat Andijan 1-0 in Super League on May 17, 2025.

Goals: D. Narzullaev (33').

The match was played at Stadion Guzar in Guzar.

Shortan vs Andijan — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Shortan 1–0 Andijan