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Shooting Stars vs Wikki Tourist — NPFL 2019

Shooting Stars
Shooting Stars
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wikki Tourist
Wikki Tourist
2/20/2022NPFLNPFL · Round 14Adamasingba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Shooting Stars62%
×Draw25%
Wikki Tourist12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shooting Stars
1.55
Wikki Tourist
0.53

Shooting Stars creates 192% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 89 away

creates per match

Shooting Stars
1.62
Wikki Tourist
0.52

allows per match

Shooting Stars
0.54
Wikki Tourist
1.48

finishing

Shooting Stars+0.00on par
Wikki Tourist+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shooting Stars ↓

Wikki Tourist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shooting Stars or draw
88%
Shooting Stars or Wikki Tourist
75%
Draw or Wikki Tourist
38%

Winning margin

Shooting Stars wins by 2+
34%
Wikki Tourist wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Shooting Stars 1+ goals
79%
Shooting Stars 2+ goals
46%
Shooting Stars 3+ goals
20%
Wikki Tourist 1+ goals
41%
Wikki Tourist 2+ goals
10%
Wikki Tourist 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Shooting Stars (draw refunded)
83%
Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shooting Stars at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.54 · 85 matches

Wikki Tourist away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.48 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shooting Stars attack 1.62 + Wikki Tourist defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Wikki Tourist attack 0.52 + Shooting Stars defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Shooting Stars scores more
62%
level
25%
Wikki Tourist scores more
12%

Shooting Stars at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Shooting Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Shooting Stars 0–0 Wikki Tourist

Shooting Stars and Wikki Tourist drew 0-0 in NPFL on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Adamasingba Stadium in Ibadan.