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Shooting Stars vs Sunshine Stars — NPFL 2019

Shooting Stars
Shooting Stars
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sunshine Stars
Sunshine Stars
4/28/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 32Adamasingba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Shooting Stars63%
×Draw25%
Sunshine Stars12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shooting Stars
1.53
Sunshine Stars
0.51

Shooting Stars creates 200% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 110 away

creates per match

Shooting Stars
1.62
Sunshine Stars
0.48

allows per match

Shooting Stars
0.54
Sunshine Stars
1.44

finishing

Shooting Stars+0.00on par
Sunshine Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shooting Stars ↓

Sunshine Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shooting Stars or draw
88%
Shooting Stars or Sunshine Stars
75%
Draw or Sunshine Stars
37%

Winning margin

Shooting Stars wins by 2+
34%
Sunshine Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Shooting Stars 1+ goals
78%
Shooting Stars 2+ goals
45%
Shooting Stars 3+ goals
20%
Sunshine Stars 1+ goals
40%
Sunshine Stars 2+ goals
9%
Sunshine Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Shooting Stars (draw refunded)
84%
Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shooting Stars at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.54 · 85 matches

Sunshine Stars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.44 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shooting Stars attack 1.62 + Sunshine Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

Sunshine Stars attack 0.48 + Shooting Stars defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Shooting Stars scores more
63%
level
25%
Sunshine Stars scores more
12%

Shooting Stars at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Shooting Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shooting Stars vs Sunshine Stars

Shooting Stars beat Sunshine Stars 2-0 in NPFL on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Adamasingba Stadium in Ibadan.