Shooting Stars 2–1 Rivers United: Result & Stats

Shooting Stars

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rivers United

3/12/2026

NPFL · Round 24Lekan Salami Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Shooting Stars56%

×Draw27%

Rivers United17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shooting StarsExpected goals in this matchRivers United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.63

Shooting Stars

1.42

Rivers United

0.63

Shooting Stars creates 125% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 130 away

1.62

creates per match

0.72

0.54

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Shooting Stars

1.62

Rivers United

0.72

allows per match

Shooting Stars

0.54

Rivers United

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shooting Stars+0.00on par

Rivers United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shooting Stars ↓

Rivers United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Shooting Stars or draw

83%

Shooting Stars or Rivers United

73%

Draw or Rivers United

44%

Winning margin

Shooting Stars wins by 2+

28%

Rivers United wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Shooting Stars 1+ goals

76%

Shooting Stars 2+ goals

41%

Shooting Stars 3+ goals

17%

Rivers United 1+ goals

47%

Rivers United 2+ goals

13%

Rivers United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Shooting Stars (draw refunded)

77%

Rivers United (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shooting Stars at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.54 · 85 matches

Rivers United away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shooting Stars attack 1.62 + Rivers United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Rivers United attack 0.72 + Shooting Stars defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shooting Stars scores more

56%

level

27%

Rivers United scores more

17%

Shooting Stars at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shooting Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff