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Shooting Stars vs Niger Tornadoes — NPFL 2019

Shooting Stars
Shooting Stars
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes
3/23/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 30Adamasingba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Shooting Stars62%
×Draw25%
Niger Tornadoes13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shooting Stars
1.58
Niger Tornadoes
0.56

Shooting Stars creates 182% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 96 away

creates per match

Shooting Stars
1.62
Niger Tornadoes
0.58

allows per match

Shooting Stars
0.54
Niger Tornadoes
1.53

finishing

Shooting Stars+0.00on par
Niger Tornadoes+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shooting Stars ↓

Niger Tornadoes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Shooting Stars or draw
87%
Shooting Stars or Niger Tornadoes
75%
Draw or Niger Tornadoes
38%

Winning margin

Shooting Stars wins by 2+
34%
Niger Tornadoes wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Shooting Stars 1+ goals
79%
Shooting Stars 2+ goals
47%
Shooting Stars 3+ goals
21%
Niger Tornadoes 1+ goals
43%
Niger Tornadoes 2+ goals
11%
Niger Tornadoes 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Shooting Stars (draw refunded)
83%
Niger Tornadoes (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shooting Stars at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.54 · 85 matches

Niger Tornadoes away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.53 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shooting Stars attack 1.62 + Niger Tornadoes defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

Niger Tornadoes attack 0.58 + Shooting Stars defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Shooting Stars scores more
62%
level
25%
Niger Tornadoes scores more
13%

Shooting Stars at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Shooting Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Shooting Stars 3–1 Niger Tornadoes

Shooting Stars beat Niger Tornadoes 3-1 in NPFL on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Adamasingba Stadium in Ibadan.