Shooting Stars 2–0 Lobi Stars: Result & Stats

Shooting Stars

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lobi Stars

4/16/2024

NPFL · Round 30Adamasingba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Shooting Stars62%

×Draw25%

Lobi Stars13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shooting StarsExpected goals in this matchLobi Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.54

Shooting Stars

1.55

Lobi Stars

0.54

Shooting Stars creates 187% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 113 away

1.62

creates per match

0.53

0.54

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Shooting Stars

1.62

Lobi Stars

0.53

allows per match

Shooting Stars

0.54

Lobi Stars

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shooting Stars+0.00on par

Lobi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shooting Stars ↓

Lobi Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Shooting Stars or draw

87%

Shooting Stars or Lobi Stars

75%

Draw or Lobi Stars

38%

Winning margin

Shooting Stars wins by 2+

34%

Lobi Stars wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Shooting Stars 1+ goals

79%

Shooting Stars 2+ goals

46%

Shooting Stars 3+ goals

20%

Lobi Stars 1+ goals

42%

Lobi Stars 2+ goals

10%

Lobi Stars 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Shooting Stars (draw refunded)

83%

Lobi Stars (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shooting Stars at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.54 · 85 matches

Lobi Stars away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.48 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shooting Stars attack 1.62 + Lobi Stars defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Lobi Stars attack 0.53 + Shooting Stars defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Shooting Stars scores more

62%

level

25%

Lobi Stars scores more

13%

Shooting Stars at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Shooting Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff