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Shooting Stars vs Kano Pillars — NPFL 2019

Shooting Stars
Shooting Stars
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
12/14/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 17Adamasingba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Shooting Stars61%
×Draw25%
Kano Pillars14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shooting Stars
1.58
Kano Pillars
0.59

Shooting Stars creates 168% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 121 away

creates per match

Shooting Stars
1.62
Kano Pillars
0.64

allows per match

Shooting Stars
0.54
Kano Pillars
1.54

finishing

Shooting Stars+0.00on par
Kano Pillars+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shooting Stars ↓

Kano Pillars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Shooting Stars or draw
86%
Shooting Stars or Kano Pillars
75%
Draw or Kano Pillars
39%

Winning margin

Shooting Stars wins by 2+
34%
Kano Pillars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Shooting Stars 1+ goals
79%
Shooting Stars 2+ goals
47%
Shooting Stars 3+ goals
21%
Kano Pillars 1+ goals
45%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
12%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Shooting Stars (draw refunded)
82%
Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shooting Stars at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.54 · 85 matches

Kano Pillars away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.54 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shooting Stars attack 1.62 + Kano Pillars defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Kano Pillars attack 0.64 + Shooting Stars defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Shooting Stars scores more
61%
level
25%
Kano Pillars scores more
14%

Shooting Stars at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Shooting Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Shooting Stars 2–0 Kano Pillars

Shooting Stars beat Kano Pillars 2-0 in NPFL on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Adamasingba Stadium in Ibadan.