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Shooting Stars vs Ikorodu City — NPFL 2019

Shooting Stars
Shooting Stars
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ikorodu City
Ikorodu City
9/7/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 3Lekan Salami Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Shooting Stars60%
×Draw25%
Ikorodu City14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shooting Stars
1.56
Ikorodu City
0.61

Shooting Stars creates 156% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 38 away

creates per match

Shooting Stars
1.62
Ikorodu City
0.68

allows per match

Shooting Stars
0.54
Ikorodu City
1.50

finishing

Shooting Stars+0.00on par
Ikorodu City+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shooting Stars ↓

Ikorodu City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Shooting Stars or draw
86%
Shooting Stars or Ikorodu City
75%
Draw or Ikorodu City
40%

Winning margin

Shooting Stars wins by 2+
33%
Ikorodu City wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Shooting Stars 1+ goals
79%
Shooting Stars 2+ goals
46%
Shooting Stars 3+ goals
21%
Ikorodu City 1+ goals
46%
Ikorodu City 2+ goals
13%
Ikorodu City 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Shooting Stars (draw refunded)
81%
Ikorodu City (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shooting Stars at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.54 · 85 matches

Ikorodu City away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shooting Stars attack 1.62 + Ikorodu City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ikorodu City attack 0.68 + Shooting Stars defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Shooting Stars scores more
60%
level
25%
Ikorodu City scores more
14%

Shooting Stars at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Shooting Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Shooting Stars 1–1 Ikorodu City

Shooting Stars and Ikorodu City drew 1-1 in NPFL on September 7, 2025.

The match was played at Lekan Salami Stadium in Ibadan.